Periodically, the Kremlin sharply increased the degree of tension in Ukraine. Avdiyivka — last striking example. Before that, in the end of the summer, tension grew on the background of the capture of the so-called “Ukrainian saboteurs” in the Crimea. Then Russia held on the Peninsula and military exercises, and mobilization, entering the military regime (for the first time since 1945).
The Kremlin sends a signal to the West: if you don’t put pressure on Kiev to agree to Putin’s interpretation of the Minsk agreements (localization of the bandits and their inclusion in the political field of Ukraine), the situation in the country will worsen.
After the last of the autumn attacks on Putin, Lavrov and Shoigu spoke very openly: if there is no political settlement, there will be no ceasefire. This is a continuation of their previous line for the decline of Ukraine to implement the Minsk agreement in the interpretation of Putin. The goal is not Donbass and the whole Ukraine. If it is impossible by military means to seize, it is possible in a political way to block the European vector of development of the country, pushing it in LNR/DNR.
Since the signing of the second Minsk agreement took almost two years. Tactics of the Kremlin, in my opinion, all this time has not changed.
In addition, the Kremlin sends a “Hello” Trump, who, as he seems to be more favorable to Russia. In General we get from Washington are the most mixed signals. On the one hand, we heard a very strong position of the new US representative in the UN security Council, which was confirmed by press Secretary of the President. On the other — trump continues to talk about how good it would be with the Russians to fight against ISIS (banned in Russia organization — approx. ed.).
Trump inclined to strike some kind of deal with Moscow. As noted by the leader of the democratic minority in the U.S. House of representatives Nancy Pelosi, “I would still like to know what Russian have the trump.” Because to explain the chatter about what America wants Russia to fight against ISIS, anything else is impossible.
But to implement their plans Trump will be hard. America is a democratic country, it has independent branches of government and strong institutions. They will not allow the American President to go to some kind of deal with Putin. First of all, the Congress, who takes a hard Pro-Ukrainian position.
