The fact that Chinese President XI Jinping traveled thousands of miles to meet with US President at Mar-a-Lago and trump is not taking in the forbidden city, means that China acknowledges its status as the youngest powers in relation to the United States.
But this does not mean that si considers the status of the eternal. On the contrary, he can count on the fact that the strategic positions of the two countries will change very quickly if the US would refuse to expend energy on maintaining their global superiority.
Discussions about the rise of China and relative decline of America has been in nearly a decade. However, the idea that China could replace the USA as the dominant global power, was not considered convincing (and neither Chinese nor experts in the world), while trump did not become President.
This new relationship could further be strengthened after a meeting in Mar-a-Lago. This event is presented as a favorable occasion for personal acquaintance between the two leaders. However, as reported, trump intends to raise at the summit at least three important questions: is a huge deficit in America’s trade turnover with China, the nuclear program of North Korea, territorial disputes between China and US allies in the South China sea.
Both leaders, of course, want the source lost on all these issues. This will allow one of them to look like a “winner” after the summit. Trump needed a positive result to compensate for a series of political failures that have seriously undermined his political capital and has resulted in a drop in approval rating to a record low. And si wants diplomatic victory to strengthen their political position in front of the all-China Congress of the Communist party of China in November.
In trade trump wants to limit Chinese exports to the United States by the possible introduction of high duties on Chinese goods, causing us and international manufacturers to move their production facilities to America. But trump is unlikely to get their way in this matter. Unilateral conduct duties on Chinese imports may provoke trade conflicts and tough response to China and would harm American business, which generates profit (and provides affordable goods to American consumers), placing production in China.
A more suitable alternative for trump would be to attempt to convince China to increase imports from the United States. However, this change will demand from China some time. In addition, there are problems on the American side of the equation, trump simply cannot dictate quotas to companies that make decisions based on market conditions.
Meanwhile, trump hinted that it may somehow soften its stance on the issue on bilateral trade if the si will be offered assistance in curbing the nuclear ambitions of the North Korean regime. However, it will be difficult to sway the si, because he knows that the issue of trade he has the advantage. For its part, the si can offer Chinese cooperation in exchange for refusal of the USA missile defence systems THAAD in South Korea.
It is highly likely that trump would turn down the offer. But it is possible that he overestimates China’s influence on North Korea. Its recent nuclear and missile tests North Korea conducted contrary to the sanctions to China, to stop coal imports from the DPRK, and is the main source of income for the North Korean regime. If China has less control over North Korea than many think, then si is unlikely to be able to make some strategic concessions to Trump in order to solve the problems of the nuclear threat.
The same can be said for the issue of the South China sea. China has defined its territorial claims as “vital interests”, and this means that he will be ready to use force to protect their positions in the region. Some experts criticized former U.S. President Barack Obama that he was too soft on this issue, allowing China were to assert their claims over the previous eight years. But it is unlikely that Obama could do something real to stop China, thus creating the threat of major conflict between the major powers. Trump also wants to stop the strategic consolidation of China in the South China sea, but (and this is proven by his meeting with C) its options in this matter is limited in exactly the same way as Obama.
Amid such obstacles from trump is almost undoubtedly no chance to ensure political victory at the summit. And si, meanwhile, will be able to return home in triumph — it is enough just stand on their positions. This is very likely the outcome will only strengthen the view that the U.S. is losing its global influence in favor of China. First and foremost, this conclusion comes experts in the Asia-Pacific region, who see trump threw in the garbage the TRANS-Pacific partnership and stop Obama declared strategic “pivot” of the US towards this region.
Because of the deep split within the American society of isolationist, anti-liberal administration trump may have already lost the political capital and commitment needed to at least delay, not to mention the fact that to reverse that began a shift in global dominance in favor of China. And this shift will only accelerate in the future — during and after the presidency of trump. If in the USA there will be no serious changes in order to preserve a costly and hard-won global supremacy.
