Provocation, taken July 12-15 Armenia on the international border in Tovuz, clearly demonstrated the desire of the Armenian authorities to involve in the conflict between the two countries a global force. But this time the Armenian side had failed, in part due to geopolitical miscalculation of the country’s leadership, and partly to excessive enthusiasm of its military command “computer games”.
Tighten’d in Tavush Tovuz
The result is that foreign policy implications for Yerevan Tovuz provocations — already manifested and future — are very disappointing.
As one of the international experts first of all pay attention to the fact that the Azerbaijani side because of several compelling circumstances, in no way was not interested in escalation of tensions on the border between the two countries. First, Tovuz is located far from occupied territories and no tactical advantage for Azerbaijan in this direction is not acquired. The second factor is that Tovuz border zone were placed under the operational command of border troops. Even if we imagine that Baku was going there to take the attack on Armenia in this direction at least, it was necessary to concentrate large military resources, which, as it turned out, was not. In addition, the area of the operational actions in this area are quite limited in the radius it does not exceed several tens of kilometers and cross the border to go on the Armenian territory, would be to incur the opposition of the military forces of the CSTO, the member of which Armenia is a party, and the condemnation of all possible international organizations.
Conclusion in connection with this situation may be one: as just that — a violation by Azerbaijan of the Armenian border and, as a consequence, involvement in the border conflict between CSTO and hoped Yerevan, intending to give a military conflict inter-state character.
Method in order to recover against Baku international force, and most importantly — a military Alliance of CSTO Yerevan used tested, although one is not triggered. During the events of April 2016 Armenia already attempted to force the CSTO military means to understand the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict. However, member countries of the organization then stated that the occupied territories of Azerbaijan is not included in the area of responsibility of the unit.
This time Yerevan had hoped to present seemingly good reasons to pay for the resumption of hostilities, the attention of the leadership of the CSTO. July 13, on the second day after their own provocations and threats of military escalation of the conflict, Minister of foreign Affairs of Armenia Zohrab Mnatsakanyan has called the Secretary General of the CSTO Stanislav Sasu and insisted to take urgent measures. Still not having the situation, the CSTO Secretariat decided to hold an emergency meeting. But just a couple of hours, having received some information and a little understanding, the Secretary General of the organization overturned it and was limited to the day after the General statement, urging both sides to show restraint.
Why this time Armenia was a fiasco? It is useful in this connection to recall that in the last two years the actions of the official Yerevan can hardly be called a friendly against the CSTO. First Yerevan has withdrawn its representative Yuri Khachaturov, who at that time was the Secretary General of the organization to Institute a criminal case against him and even arresting. Thus Armenia lost the right rotating post of Secretary General, but did not want to admit it and began to block the appointment to the post of representative of Belarus. And now to him, who became the Secretary General of the CSTO Stanislav SUSU, forced to request aid.
In addition to all this background, the member countries of the CSTO sober assessment of the situation on the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan has refused to recognize the “Tovuz provocation of Yerevan” of interstate conflict. A significant role was played also by the reaction of a leading member of the CSTO — Russia. About it most said in Yerevan, and many international observers.
However, it is unclear what hope the current leader of Armenia Nikol Pashinian, if it is obvious to all that power he came on the wave of anti-Russian sentiment, which he himself together with his colleagues strongly heated.
From the first days of his Premiership he was also in the foreign policy adopted a Pro-Western foreign policy orientation. The people around Pashinian, brought them to the country’s leadership, openly hold anti-Russian views. However, after coming to power, he changed his rhetoric, realizing that to continue the occupation policy of Armenia against Azerbaijan needs a solid military-technical base, which can only give Moscow. And without Russian gas the country can not do.
I must say, in spite of hostile attacks from Yerevan, Moscow has traditionally supported the military-political and economic cooperation between Armenia and Russia. Supporters of Azerbaijan in this regard, alarmed launched on 15 July, that is just a few days after the incident on the Azerbaijani-Armenian border, large-scale exercises in the units of the southern military district of the Russian armed forces.
And with stationed in Armenia the 102nd Russian base. However, the Minister of defence of Russia Sergey Shoigu said the exercises were planned long in advance and to the border conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan have no relationship. Apparently, this is true because large-scale military maneuvers cannot be undertaken without preparation.
Thus, Moscow has made it clear to the current leadership of Armenia that is not going to intervene in the conflict on any side. This is despite the fact that in Russia, including in leadership positions, a lot of obvious patrons of Armenia. Endless Armenian adventure, no doubt, thoroughly annoy Moscow.
For anti-Russian forces in Yerevan current failure with the involvement of the CSTO was another reason for appeals to the need for closer integration of Yerevan in Euro-Atlantic structures. It is not excluded, therefore, that provocation at the border were undertaken with the aim of discrediting Russia before the West — say, threw his own ally.
Without NATO and without Russia
The current head of the defense Ministry of Armenia Davit Tonoyan worked at the mission of Armenia to NATO, and, as it became known from diplomatic sources, the Yerevan has requested consultations with the Alliance. Tonoyan, meanwhile, known in close circle as an avid fan of computer games, so it may be that a different kind of “strategy” and “shooting” and gave him an idea to start, as the defense Minister was presented a large-scale geopolitical game. However, his new defence concept — “a new war for new territory” proclaimed in March 2019, good for a virtual audience, but has little in common with the realities in Armenia and abroad.
No matter how whiny Pashinyan and his team to the Western “friends” in Brussels to Armenia of special trust do not. There’s not forgot the epic collaboration between Armenia and the European Union, when after long years of negotiations, in November 2013, Yerevan refused to sign with him the agreement of economic Association and chose the Customs Union and later the EEU. That is Moscow. The current agreement EU — Armenia, concluded in November 2017, thoroughly truncated compared to the initial contract rejected after many lengthy discussions. And Yerevan can understand — how not seek it in the bosom of Europe and America, real rocket launchers, and gas, not to mention the other, more reliable European promises to give all this bad until the foreseeable future. That is, as they say, better bird in hand than two in the Bush…
Instead of a summary
Unlike Armenia, which is trying to sit on two chairs, Baku openly declares its foreign policy priorities. The strategy of Azerbaijan is planned for many years to come and will evolve in accordance with practical achieved economic independence. The settlement of the conflict with Armenia will open great prospects for closer political and economic cooperation in Baku with partners, primarily with the neighbors. The need to develop relations with the neighboring countries once again emphasized the President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev, giving instructions to the new Minister of foreign Affairs of the country to Jeyhun Bayramov, 16 Jul 2020.
As for Armenia, it is obvious that the current leadership in Yerevan wants to complete a long-term affair-a Saga with Moscow, and various military adventures with the involvement of third forces serve this purpose. Recall that in his time the Armenian national movement (ANM) headed by Levon Ter-Petrosyan sought independence from Moscow, but then again shifted to its Northern neighbor, with impunity, to make it more convenient to occupy Azerbaijani lands in 1992-94.
And what is the result? Permanent adventure Yerevan establishment has deprived the people of Armenia to live in peace and develop economically. Of course, after so many decades of nationalist fervor, the majority of the population doesn’t realize that other people’s land nothing but a heavy burden has not brought that war, in addition to the huge material resources, which are removed just from the people, requires all new casualties that the authorities seeking to consolidate that with the fact that with this, there is no foreign policy priorities, and the country of the future.
Maybe Tonano it seems that he overcomes the next level in the computer battle, but a philosophical paradox of any gambling lies in the fact that even if a player reaches a higher level, she still ends… and the points are reset.