When the heads of States and governments “the twenty” will gather in Hamburg, is expected to be a heated debate. America’s refusal from the Paris climate agreement, tensions between Washington and Moscow, the North Korean crisis, famine in Africa: the talks at the G20 summit may prove to be extremely difficult, also because two major state leader, Donald trump, and Vladimir Putin, will meet for the first time in Hamburg. Anyone any purpose? And how good are the chances to achieve them? A review of the major players.
***
Donald Trump
What he wants:
The us President said before a meeting of “twenty” on the exit from the Paris climate agreement. Also on the issue of world trade, trump is considered a large factor of uncertainty because it is constantly threatened by customs barriers and penalty measures, in the spirit of its policy of “America first”.
Additionally, trump will demand decisive action and more severe sanctions against North Korea. Already during his intermediate visit to Poland, he reacted harshly Thursday to recent missile test in North Korea. Primarily from China, the closest ally of North Korea, trump expects more consecutive steps. The dynamics of these negotiations would make the proposal of Russia and China, which stipulates that the United States should limit its military presence in South Korea, if North Korea abandons its nuclear program — a requirement that trump will surely reject.
During his meeting with Putin on Friday, the trump must first raise the issue of alleged Russian cyber attacks. However, he is under enormous domestic political pressure, because if he does, it is criticized as a person is not able to protect national interests. With regard to the Syrian conflict, the trump will probably be betting on more cooperation with Russia. Shortly before the G20 summit the United States has offered Russia cooperation. Washington showed a willingness to discuss the issue of “joint mechanisms” to stabilize the situation in the country engulfed in civil war, including the establishment of no-fly zones and joint coordination of humanitarian assistance.
What are the chances of:
First of all its protectionist course and their boycott of the Paris climate agreement trump will probably encounter fierce resistance. The Minister of foreign Affairs Sigmar Gabriel (SPD) said on Thursday a clear and confident appeal with the American partner: “We want to explain to him that “America first” doesn’t mean “America only”.” And: “We are not an appendage of some policy.”
Also the agreement with Russia on the Syrian conflict will be, apparently, for an American President not easy — because of the “destabilizing behavior” in which trump has accused Moscow on Thursday during his visit to Poland. The reason for these hard words are obvious: due to growing pressure at home in conjunction with the Russian Scam trump needs to distance themselves from Moscow in order to avoid the impression that he’s in cahoots with Russia. However, such rhetoric, Mr Putin is unlikely to are welcomed — and appreciated it as an insult that America defiantly wants to strengthen the defense of Poland against Russia.
***
Vladimir Putin
What he wants:
Putin and the Russian delegation still spoke only a few clear goals for this summit. Russia shares the priorities of the German presidency in the G20 and ready to work on their implementation, Putin wrote Thursday in an article for Handelsblatt newspaper. His country was in favour of global free trade, protectionism must be stopped. At the same time, Putin reaffirmed his support for the Paris climate agreement. According to him, Russia considers that the climate agreement as a solid basis for long-term climate regulation and wants to make a large contribution to its implementation.
In addition, Putin will probably insist in Hamburg on easing sanctions that were announced against Russia over the Ukrainian crisis and that Putin is criticized as hidden protectionism. “In our view, such sanctions are not only futile, but contrary to G20 principles for cooperation in the interests of all countries of the world,” Putin wrote in the article.
But the most important in Hamburg, will probably be Putin’s meeting with U.S. President trump. During scheduled for Friday talks will focus on the conflicts in Ukraine and Syria, but above all also about the alleged Russian interference in the American election campaign. Presumably, Putin once again during this interview with trump that cyber attacks were not organized by the Russian state authorities. Relations between the two countries is unlikely to improve, and without it, they are extremely tense, since trump recently even further expanded sanctions against Russia. And he provoked Putin’s missile strike by Syrian air force subordinate to Syrian ruler Bashar al-Assad is Putin’s protégé. Predecessor trump Obama avoided direct military action against Assad troops.
What are the chances of:
Should we expect concrete results from the meeting with trump? Probably not. Time is short and the priority is a personal acquaintance. However, perhaps trump will speak with Putin on cooperation in the fight against “Islamic state” ( organization banned in Russia, note transl.) and other Islamist groups — the subject he was called in the election campaign as possible fields for joint action. However, the convergence of viewpoints on this issue will be difficult because of the recently intensified the dispute on Syria.
Although the Kremlin Advisor Yuri Ushakov called this meeting on Friday “the decisive factor for international stability and security,” however, he left open the question of what topics Putin could put in the center of attention. Adviser to the national security of the United States Herbert Raymond McMaster (Herbert Raymond McMaster) said that trump wants to counteract all the “destabilizing” the Russian actions. It may sound as a signal to reset damaged relations.
***
Angela Merkel
What she wants:
As the mistress of the summit German Chancellor special role: will do if the summit ultimately any results or not, is attributed to her negotiating skills. In Hamburg Merkel wants to achieve first and foremost the consent of all the States “the twenty” — including the United States, on the occasion of the world climate protection. As the leading country in this field, what is Germany willing presents itself at the international level, for the Chancellor would be defeated if such a commitment is absent in the final statement.
The climate and thereby overshadows the theme of Africa, which, in fact, was to be Central at the summit. Merkel wants to re-organize international assistance for the development and combat the causes of migration to reduce it. She also wants to better integrate Africa into the international economic relations and world trade. First of all, the latter is combined with a universal commitment to free international trade relations, what Merkel expects from this summit — an open challenge to isolationist aspirations of Donald trump. Plans Merkel are also combating global epidemics with the best crisis management, Internet access for all people at the latest by 2025 and improve working conditions for children.
What are the odds:
According to many observers, little chance that Angela Merkel will be able on Saturday to introduce the world to the significant decisions that go beyond verbal assurances, on such important issues as climate protection, Africa, and free trade. Too fundamental differences between such large players such as America, Russia and Europe — not only in foreign policy but also on economic policy such as free trade.
Hamburg summit, like most other summits, is for Merkel rather a symbolic chance: if she succeeds despite serious contradictions between the parties to create some sort of shared spirit and, though only rhetorically softening of the intransigence of Donald trump, for example, on the issue of climate protection, then it could be Hamburg with its success. How it would look diplomatically shows the draft closing statements, which on Wednesday evening became known to the news Agency Reuters: according to this document, States claim as their fundamental shared goal to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases, but simultaneously emphasize the existence of irreconcilable differences with the United States at the Paris climate agreement. For Merkel, Hamburg summit could be a success after negative events: everything repeats uncompromising position of trump, it would have been positive.
***
Recep Tayyip Erdogan
What he wants:
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (Recep Tayyip Erdogan) summit in Hamburg would probably be tense, especially with regard to Donald trump. For not only after a failed attempt coup in Turkey a year ago Erdogan demands the extradition of his Nemesis, preacher Fethullah Gulen (Fetullah Gülen), who resides in the United States and whom he considers behind-the-scenes organizer. Likely, Erdogan will try to talk again with trump on this subject. The potential for conflict is also contained in Erdogan’s positions on the war in Syria: for their struggle against the Kurdish minority in his own country, Erdogan outraged American arms supplies to the Kurdish armed formations YPG, which is fighting in Syria against the “Islamic state” and who is credited with close links with the outlawed Turkey Kurdistan workers ‘ party. Trump wants to arm this force, which is struggling with Erdogan this balance of power is explosive.
Tense is also hard-hitting meeting between Erdogan and Merkel. Due to the transformation of Turkey into an authoritarian regime and the arrest of a German journalist Denis Ujala (Deniz Yücel) relations between Berlin and Ankara already are at the lowest point. The recent failure of the Federal government to give Erdogan an opportunity to perform on the sidelines of the summit in front of their countrymen further exacerbated these tensions — and the fact that the European Parliament by a majority of votes on Thursday voted for the abolition of the accession negotiations of Turkey to the EU.
What are the chances of:
Even if erdoğan, as usual, with great fanfare to proclaim their demands, it is improbable that he will achieve them. In Washington in recent time, there was no indication that trump is weighing the issue of extradition of preacher gülen is here hardly anything has changed. Also unlikely to be discussed the question of the principal United States support Kurdish paramilitaries in Syria. After the first meeting of the tramp and Erdogan in may in Washington, the American President continued to adhere to its plan to arm YDP — despite the sharp criticism of Erdogan.
However, there remains the acute question of whether or not it is confirmed whether fear that Erdogan may if necessary be used as a means of pressure Pact with the EU on the issues of refugees, if the confrontation between Ankara and Brussels will be further enhanced. Then at the summit happens open scandal.
***
XI Jinping
What he wants:
Shortly before his visit to Germany, XI urged in an article for the daily newspaper Die Welt to deepen cooperation in such areas as innovation, Internet, Finance, energy, and environmental protection. China and Germany as a leading trading nation needs to assume greater responsibility for the maintenance of peace, stability and prosperity on the globe. According to him, he hopes that the G20 will adhere to the purpose of open world economy. China as an exporting country depends on free trade.
Confident in his power, XI has been working also on the implementation of its version of China’s revival. It is expected that he will reinforce at the summit of this claim. Isolationism of America to him in hand China clearly plans to gradually replace United States as leading power.
What are the chances of:
Perhaps for C this summit will not be easy. China will have to listen and also criticism, for instance, on trade: this country demands free trade, however, creates high barriers to trade and is opposed to the opening of the Chinese market for foreign firms. XI will also have to give explanations about the situation with human rights in China continue unabated repression and censorship. Only a few days ago, the EU insisted on the need to allow leaving the country to a cancer patient a human rights activist Liu Xiaobo (Liu Xiaobo), so he was able to obtain abroad the much-needed treatment.
Conflict potential in Hamburg is also in a dispute about North Korea. The American administration complains that China does not use the numerous possibilities of sanctions available to it as the most important trading partner of the North Korean regime. So si will have to define their line in this conflict. It won’t be easy, because China is also the close ally of Pyongyang.
***
Paolo Gentiloni
What he wants:
The participation of the Italian Prime Minister will be associated primarily with one topic: “emergenza migranti”, the plight of refugees. In the situation of refugees in Italy feels abandoned. Gentiloni on Thursday already probed in Tallinn what help he can expect from its European partners. In Hamburg, he probably will try to present the issue of refugees as a global humanitarian catastrophe. It is also of assistance for African countries, for example, to deal with the causes of migration.
Gentiloni are important for climate and free trade — the United States belong to the most important commercial partners of Italy. The Italian Prime Minister will also raise topics such as high unemployment, sluggish development of the situation and the recent rescue of the banks.
What are the chances of:
Although Donald trump and thanked Gentiloni on the phone for the achievements of Italy with the treatment of refugees, the Italian Prime Minister knows that he needs to ask for more assistance particularly from the EU. Concrete results for the benefit of Italy can hardly be expected from this summit. However, Gentiloni will try to position itself at the G20 along with Merkel and Macron as the third important player and thereby to adhere to the content of one line with these two policies, for example, on the topic of climate protection.
***
Jacob Zuma
What he wants:
Africa is one of the key themes of this summit, but the G20 there is only a single African representative: South African President Jacob Zuma. South Africa wants to use this summit to represent the interests of the whole continent, said Zuma before their departure. The main purpose of the controversial President is to ensure their participation in the summit of the table access to strong leadership, which South Africa as a leading economic engine of the continent would be able to negotiate about “best results for South Africa, Africa and the Third world”.
What are the chances of:
Zuma speaks in Hamburg as a representative of Africa, however, it is doubtful that this would agree in many African countries. The power position of Zuma becoming weaker — not just in the African Union, where South Africa is the largest national economy, but also vnutripsihicheskoy because Zuma long been criticized because of the policies of nepotism. Although he was able to avoid in 2016 removal from office as a result of the majority party in Parliament, but in April of this year, the opposition again called for a vote of no confidence in the President, tens of thousands of demonstrators demanded his resignation. Thus, if Zuma will be able to represent the interests of Africa, it is thus likely to achieve primarily one thing — to strengthen their own position.
In General it is doubtful that this summit could be a turning point in the fate of the African continent suffer from hunger and economic collapse. The tone of this summit will ask the other topics and the first meeting between Donald trump and Vladimir Putin.
