Being flaming and endless debates that threatens us more: fundamentalists or Putin. However, the real enemies of our civilization is far more insidious.
Give an example of a car seat. An innocent and useful thing. How can she threaten Western civilization? Very simple. In a normal car includes a maximum of two seats. Thus, the “top” limit the number of children in the average Western family. Usedona much greater number of children required either a more expensive car, or fundamental changes in lifestyle. Both for most families is almost unacceptable.
Economist Steven Levitt notes, based on the statistics that car seats did not need children older than six years. As for younger children, it can be assumed annually in the USA car seats save the lives of several hundred of them. Great? But, unfortunately, no one has ever counted how many children were born not just because of car seats, how many parents have said to myself: “After all three kids will not fit in our car.” The mandatory use of car seats has led and leads to large losses in human lives, which is neither all terrorists, neither Putin, nor are they combined.
The legislature could
Rash decisions of bureaucrats, even wanted to make it better, can have far-reaching consequences. From saving hundreds of lives in jeopardy the lives of millions. Our lives are limited to the growing number of regulations, which often have a decisive impact on our family life, business, health. The West itself gradually choking smog legal.
Thousands of pages of laws are destroying the economy. But to the aid of the Central banks. This assistance takes the form of expansive monetary policy. If you evaluate the amount of money in the Czech economy, we are surprised to learn that from April 2002 to April 2017, the volume of liquid funds increased five times. In just 12 months (from April 2016 to April 2017), the amount of money increased by 14.5%.
Why the rush? The representatives of the Czech national Bank will tell you about the pros and solid social guarantees concerning the regulation of the economic cycle and other things. All this sounds like a quote from the textbooks, and perhaps you even believe in all this. After all, Central bankers still experts who know better, isn’t it? Expansive monetary policy is conducted almost worldwide, and do all Central banks can be wrong?
But then you get the statistics of growth of housing prices in Prague. According to the Czech statistics Committee, over the past five years prices increased by 46%. The expert would have found the connection between rising property prices and economic growth. However, any 20-year or 30-year-old bachelor knows that the money for housing it just will not be. No shelter, no family. But if no family, then the demographics of the people can put a cross, and the national economy.
On a global scale there is a very clear link between fertility and housing affordability. The reason is clear: responsible young couple think carefully about whether or not to have a child (or more!) in a Studio apartment, and even more rented. A small consolation is that it is not only a Western problem. The average Shanghai resident earns 25% more than the average Prague-born (Yes, the salaries we have lagged behind Shanghai), but apartment prices in Shanghai in 2.5-3.4 times higher in terms of square meter. Why? Because the Chinese Central Bank stimulates the economy much more active than the Czech national Bank.
Shanghai refers to the cities with the lowest birth rate on the planet. By the way, the same situation with other Chinese cities. The Chinese Central Bank conducts a very expansionary monetary policy, so housing prices soared unimaginably. Many now admire China for its rapid economic growth and apparent resilience to the recession. However, the cash infusion is a slow-acting poison. A little time will pass and China will be a more serious problem with an aging population than today, Japan and Germany.
The motivation for childlessness
The third force, destroying the West, is the current pension system. This is the most risky morally venture of all time. The system motivates to childlessness, because old age will take care of you state. Wherever this system appeared, sharply reduced fertility. Remarkably, this effect is observed in the West and in the former socialist countries. But above all, this scourge of Germany and Japan.
In 50 years the Germans have reformed, creating a system of payments, which operates in the Czech Republic. Side effects of this seemingly wonderful and safe systems is the reduction of the importance of their own descendants. Why have kids if you retire you will pay for other people’s children? What will happen with Germany in the next 20-30 years? What will happen with the rest of Europe?
A civilization that has no children has no future. Western civilization will not destroy the Islamic fundamentalists and not Russia. The West will destroy itself with its bureaucracy, meaningless monetary policy and risky games with morality (the question of the pension system beyond the reforms).
And after many centuries people will wonder why collapsed advanced in culture and civilization that once existed in Europe, and whose representatives had light skin, and their hair and eyes were different colors.
The author is an economist, co-author of the program of the party “Realists”
