The Arab crisis will spread to Turkey?

And here we are again faced with a crisis. This time clashed in the Persian Gulf. The news broke yesterday morning: the first two Gulf countries — Saudi Arabia and Bahrain — announced the severance of diplomatic relations with Qatar. Shortly thereafter they were joined by Egypt, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), the Maldives and recognized by the government of Yemen and Libya.

Moreover, these countries have closed air and sea borders with Qatar, took the citizens of Qatar the period of 14 days to ensure that they left their territory. Qatar was also accused of “supporting terrorism” in Yemen, especially “al-Qaeda” and ISIS (banned in Russia — approx. ed.).

In fact, Turkey is not a party to this crisis. She had “perfect” relations with Qatar, with Saudi Arabia in many respects it has improved their ties in recent times. But the problem is that in many countries of the region, Turkey is perceived as a supporter of Qatar. Along with this, we soon may face difficult times.

Qatar and the Iranian issue

In fact, this crisis has not fallen from the sky. He really has been brewing for some time, and it has two reasons. First, the Gulf countries, especially Saudi Arabia and the UAE, want to destroy Iran’s influence in the region. And Qatar, as it is known, for some time to build relationships with Iran. Meeting the commander of the forces, “al-Quds” in Iran’s Qassem Soleimani (Kasım Süleymani) with the Minister of foreign Affairs of Qatar last week caused confusion in the Gulf region. Moreover, there were rumours that Qatar is trying to assume the role of mediator between Iran and the Gulf countries.

In relation to Hezbollah and Hamas, Qatar also showed a moderate stance — in contrast to the Gulf countries, which consider them “terrorist organizations”. If you remember, Hamas has even moved its headquarters from Damascus to Doha.

In addition, one message is passed in the press of Saudi Arabia and the UAE last week, popularized this position. According to him, on the graduation of military-educational institutions of the Emir of Qatar opposed the escalation of the conflict with Iran. And Hezbollah and Hamas, he called the “resistance movements”.

The dilemma around the “Muslim brotherhood”

The second reason for the antagonism against Qatar in the Persian Gulf region — a group that falls under the definition of “moderate Islam”, especially the “Muslim brotherhood”. Qatar has long been the main supporter and sponsor of the “Muslim Brothers”. As for the Gulf countries and Egypt “Muslim brotherhood” a terrorist organization.

The gap between them on the issue of Iran and the “Muslim brotherhood” has further deepened since then, trump became President. Because trump is the same as Gulf countries, wants to push Iran off the system and puts the “Muslim Brothers” on a par with ISIS. On top of that recently the US President signed on the Saudi land agreements worth USD 350 billion and opened her arms to the triangle Egypt — Israel — Saudi Arabia, which has largely strengthened the Union.


© AP Photo Majdi MohammedЛидер Palestinian movement Hamas on the West Bank of the Jordan river Hassan Yousef

Consequently, a serious crisis was on the doorstep. But, frankly, more prevalent suspicion that his appearance was connected with the attempt of a Palace coup in Qatar.

Where is Turkey in this crisis?

How this crisis will affect us? To start overview: we have good relations with Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, but UAE our relationship difficult. With Egypt, simply no. On the other hand, we are experiencing a Golden age in relations with Qatar. Fast growing investments of this country in Turkey. In Qatar we are preparing to establish a military base. Most importantly, many countries believe that we are on the same flank with Qatar.

Researcher at the Foundation for political, economic and social research (SETA), an expert on the Middle East Kese Talha (Talha Köse) makes an important warning on this subject and says that the next target of Persian Gulf after Qatar, “possible”, will be Turkey. “At least they can make an economic attack,” — said the expert. The main concern of this front — to break the connection of Ankara with all groups associated with the “Muslim brotherhood”. And to expel from the country persons associated with them. Including Hamas.

However, if in this debate we will take a position on the side of Qatar, in the Persian Gulf and in the West, we may face a campaign to discredit in the spirit of “you support terror”.

Of course, there is the Iranian issue. Apparently, trump and Gulf countries will force Ankara to take a clear position on this matter. And it will be one of the issues that put us in the difficult situation. Especially at a time when we are trying to stay out of the conflict between Shiites and Sunnis, which suppresses the region… however, we can also see the pressure aimed at the normalization of our relations with Egypt.

In short, this crisis has driven Ankara in a vise. If we do not follow the very famous “policy of balance” about which we constantly speak, and perform some delicate maneuvers, then, unfortunately, we too may find yourself in a serious crisis. Let’s hope that with the entry into USA and after Qatar will go on “concessions”, the crisis will be overcome.