Damascus — may 18, prepared by trainers from the US and UK in Jordan group Maghawir al-Thawra (revolution Riot) appeared in the province of Deir al-Zor close to the border with Iraq town al-Bukamal. The evening of the same day, the international coalition aircraft attacked a column of government troops advancing on the al-Tanaf. News Agency al-Masdar, 6 people were killed and 3 others injured. Destroyed several armored vehicles. It seems that the battle for Deir al-Zor enters its final stage, and the winner will get control over the region as a whole.
The fight against universally recognized terrorist organization ISIS (banned organization in Russia — approx. ed.) becomes a cause for violation of the foundations of international law, particularly the sovereignty of Syria. Trained in Jordan and accompanied the American and British instructors group Mahavir at-Taura and Used Jaish al-sharqia (Eastern lions Army) seized the border post of al-Tanaf and moved along the borders with Jordan and Iraq in the desert.
The main objective of this offensive is to monitor the Syrian-Iraqi border. This will allow the Pro-American forces to prevent direct communication between the Syrian government in Damascus and Iraq, which continues to increase the influence of Iran. For Tehran, it is essential to create the conditions for a direct land communication between Iran and Syria. Aside from the obvious benefits in trade, the future in Iran scheduled gas main construction and repair of the oil pipeline Kirkuk — HOMS — Banias. It is precisely the “Shiite axis” that dreamed of Iranian policy, and education which seek to prevent their opponents.
Iran is still the main obstacle
Airstrike on a column of forces of the Syrian regime 37 km from al-Tanaf is a request to the US readiness to resist by force attempts to restore the territorial integrity of Syria to the East. Coordinating the actions of the opposition and located in Jordan Amman military operations Center (MOC) expressed its unconditional right to control Eastern Syria, which it is impossible to convey to the Syrian regime in any case.
The second objective of the offensive is the occupation of the province of Deir al-Zor. This is directly stated on 18 may, the leadership of the movement Mahavir al-Thawra: “We are fully supplied with arms, ammunition and military equipment to take control of the entire province of Deir al-Zor”. In their place I would not be so presumptuous, bearing in mind the events of July 2016, when the predecessors of the current opposition groups “New Syrian army” fled in disgrace from under al-Bukamal, barely seeing over the horizon djihad-mobiles of ISIS. Then the pupils of the American instructors have abandoned even the weapon, which then boasted of the terrorists on the Internet. As new groups such as Mahavir al-Thawra, was created from the remnants of the New Syrian army, one can hardly argue that they will succeed in the storming of the 100-thousandth of the border town of al-Bukamal.
Most likely, units trained in Jordan by the opposition would be used only as auxiliary forces before the main attack on Deir al-Zor, which should begin only after the capture of the ISIS stronghold city of raqqa. The administration of U.S. President trump has already said that the main allies of the Americans in Syria, despite all the contradictions with Turkey, the Kurds remain. I’m guessing that they will have to bear the brunt of the operation to cleanse the province of Deir al-Zor from ISIS.
We have already mentioned in previous publications that the following after Raqqa objective of the international coalition will sweep the province of Deir al-Zor from ISIS. We assumed that the main role in this will play the Kurdish armed forces — no wonder the co-Chairman of the Majlis of democratic Syria appointed Sheikh of Deir AZ-Zor Riyadh Darara. Thus, under the control of the Kurds will be a huge and populated mostly by Arabs the territory with a population sympathetic to radical Islamists. It is to create the appearance of a Syrian’s ideas of federalism in the power of a democratic Syria includes a variety of disparate formation of the Free Syrian army and tribal Arab militias (mainly from the tribe of shammar).
Why would the Kurds and the Americans, the desert province of Deir al-Zor, in addition to the necessity of controlling the Syrian-Iraqi border? All because of its geographical position and natural resources. A small population of the province before the crisis amounted to little more than 1 million people, however, the largest percentage of it compared to the other defected to the rebels, including joined ISIS. During the civil war, the population has decreased at least twice.
The main area of the province is desert. However, it crosses the Euphrates river with fertile banks, and in the depths of the provinces are the second in Syria’s oil reserves. Their actively exploited LIH, considerably improved its financial position. In the case of seizure of the province on the map of the region will be a new space from the borders with Turkey and Jordan and Israel, which will be controlled by the Kurds and Pro-American factions of the Free Syrian army.
Damascus thus will not control its Eastern borders and the oil province of Deir al-Zor, revenues from production which could be used to rebuild the devastated country and anti-crisis social programs. Partition of Syria along the Iraqi sample is thus a reality which is becoming more objective for all participants of the Syrian crisis.
Implementation of the American scenario of partition of the country immediately reflected in the prospects of the negotiation process for national reconciliation. After the events in the East of the Geneva format of the talks came several influential factions of the Syrian opposition — battalion of Sultan Murad, Faylaq al-sham, Jaish al-Thawra, Jaish al-Yarmouk, the movement for the liberation of the homeland and the southern front of the Free Syrian army. These groups include thousands of fighters, and they have a significant impact on the course of the Syrian civil war. It seems that in the preservation of Syria as a unified state, believe less global political actors.