Ukrainian and foreign airlines at a low start – starts the summer season which traditionally is the bread. Carriers expand geography of flights and hope for the growth of passenger traffic. But will the aviation summer 2017 in our country is really hot — until the matter, writes UBR.
The current Ukrainian summer in the plans of airlines and airports look pretty promising. The emergence of new and the expansion of existing routes to warn both foreign and domestic carriers. Flights plan to run not only from Kiev, but also from the regions, the announced novelties and seasonal Charter destinations, and for regular. However, it is believed that the real prerequisites for the growth of the Ukrainian market of air transportation is almost none.
The General Director of airline “Atlasjet Ukraine” Yaroslav Krasnozhon explains that Ukrainian carriers to expand its route network mostly through the old destinations, flights that had ceased at the peak of events 2013 – 2014. But many airlines simply increase the frequency of flights on already developed areas.
Despite the seeming diversity of international carriers announced plans, the creation of a Ukrainian “daughter” in none of the cases it is not. How about flying in our country the new major foreign carriers.
The appearance of a real new routes and operators can be expected only after the entry into force of visa-free regime with the EU. Most likely, after that, about five or six new routes will declare Wizz Air. It can be flight on the Polish-German routes from, for example, Odessa and Kharkov. And new routes from the Hungarians may appear even this summer.
“It is possible that flights from Lviv to Barcelona will add after the abolition of visas Spanish budget carrier Vueling,” — said the head of the Friendly Avia Support company Oleksandr Lanetskiy.
“Also this summer in Ukraine could start flying the Spanish low cost carrier Volotea. The airline has spare capacity on the Italian direction, and for Italy only would fly to Ukraine,” adds the Lanetsky.
Summer prospects with visas and without
Clearly positive forecasts for the summer of 2017, the experts do not give. “Compared to last summer, the hottest months of the current may not be so hot in terms of volume of traffic,” admits the former Deputy Minister of infrastructure and transportation expert Alexander Kava.
In his opinion, this year Ukrainians will no longer be ultra-cheap, as in the past, tours to Turkey. As you know, last year, air traffic between Russia and Turkey was terminated, and the Russian tourists could not travel in the popular Turkish resorts. In response, the Turkish government began to generously subsidize your tourism business, which allowed us to offer tours at extremely competitive prices to provide the country with the desired amount of tourists from other States, in particular, from Ukraine.
“Now the ban lifted, and thus the Turkish resorts will no longer dump. Accordingly, the prices of tours for tourists from Ukraine to Turkey will increase,” — says Kava. He adds that the cost of flights can “grow up” and the route from Ukraine to Egypt — if Russia will restore in the near future, interrupted flights, and with the country.
According to Krasnozhon, after the introduction of bezveza Ukrainians can partially refocus on summer holidays in Europe. Because the traditional areas of Ant-Leah, Dalaman, Larnaca, and Tunisia can expect some decline in demand.
The expert believes that this summer, do not expect a repeat of last year’s record growth of passenger traffic on Charter flights. After all, last season, just realized the pent-up demand, formed in crisis 2014-2015.
“Because of insecurity, many Ukrainians in the crisis have postponed the trip until 2016”, — he explained. But, at the end of this year, passenger growth expert, however, counts.
“If based on the fact that the 1% growth in GDP yields about 4% growth in passenger traffic, and there will be no significant negative changes, it is possible to count on growth of 5-7 %” — allows Krasnozhon.
“Cancellation of visas will not work for most people. Letalnost our compatriots will increase only with the increase of their welfare,” — said cava. At the moment, enough for a foreign holiday funds can boast of no more than 4-5% of the population of Ukraine.
In addition, in Ukraine there are not so many owners of biometric passports, which are mandatory for travel to the EU without visas. “However, if a surge and will, most likely, at first. Impact pent-up demand for Europe — primarily at the expense of those who previously were denied Schengen visas,” — said the head of the Friendly Avia Support. But such citizens are unlikely to fly often, because the rest of Europe is not cheap.
The skeptics believe that a visa-free regime will lead to the increase of illegal labour migration abroad. But this category of passengers travel, usually by bus, not by plane. Earning in Europe on 1 thousand euros per month, few of them are willing to spend money on tickets. However, for example, in Moldova the introduction of a visa-free regime has led to growth of passenger traffic by 20%.
The cost of tickets to European destinations will depend not only on the route, but the pricing policy, which will adhere to the operators. Particularly mass routes are not excluded price wars.
For example, if the route Vilnius – Kiev with the Lithuanian side flying Wizz Air and Ukrainian-Inskoy MAU, it often offers lower than that of the low-cost price. If we are talking about the route Amsterdam – Kiev, where from the Dutch side KLM flying is not a cheap carrier, UIA will also keep there high price.
In General, due to the current European trend of falling average ticket prices, and increasing low-cost airlines of its fleet in the past, and in particular EasyJet, Wizz Air, Ryanair, Norwegian Air all tightened the competition between them and hit the network carriers.
In Ukraine, the reduction in the cost of transport further is dictated by the fall payment-power of the Ukrainians. Airlines are forced to lower prices, since aircraft earn only when you are in the air. Krasnozhon adds that the potential to reduce prices, our carriers have already used. “If there is no significant currency fluctuations, prices will remain at approximately the same level as now”, — the expert believes.
At the same time, according to the Cava, in September, after the launch of flights to Ukraine Irish Ryanair, things can change.
Start from Ukraine to the countries of Eastern and Northern Europe to 15 flights per week Ryanair were collected from October to November 2017. From Kiev 3 flight — in the Dutch Eindhoven, 5 and 3 respectively — the English London and Manchester, and 4 — to the Swedes in Stockholm. From Lviv Ryanair had intended to fly to Germany — in Berlin and Memmingen, Poland — in Wroclaw and in Krakow and in Hungary — in Budapest. Later it was decided that flights to the UK, as well as from Lviv to Berlin to start earlier in September.
But this did not help Ryanair from competition with UIA. On 28 April, the Ministry of transport has approved the Ukrainian carrier to obtain rights to operate air services on the route Kiev-Manchester and Kiev-Eindhoven. MAU also allowed to change the airport in Stockholm: the main airport of the capital of Sweden “Arlanda” in the second largest city — “Skavsta”, which was going to fly and Ryanаir. Flights in these areas MAU is launched on 1 may.