Today, may 14, Emmanuel macron, will take the oath as President of France. But a month after the inauguration of the Makron will be another election – parliamentary. The Fifth Republic is the vote held under the majoritarian electoral system in two rounds – 11 and 18 June. But today France is facing new political challenges – the socialist party, which for decades was one of the strongest, rapidly losing their positions, and the movement “Forward” of the newly elected President of Macron there is only a year and yet to be finalized, talk to political experts. In their opinion, none of the political forces fail to get a majority in Parliament, so they have to unite.
The absolute majority will not
Today the political system of France faced with new realities. If earlier in it there were two large camps – the center-right and socialists, now the system is more pluralistic, told the “Today” political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko. According to experts, in the upcoming parliamentary elections to the National Assembly of France, none of the parties will not win enough votes to form a majority. This will force political forces to form coalitions, he said.
“In the history of the Fifth Republic was not such. This is a new situation, so we can predict only one thing – none of the parties will not have full majority,” – said Fesenko.
THE SOCIALISTS LOSE THEIR RATING. Over the past 30 years French politics was dominated by the two largest parties – the socialists and Republicans, said Fesenko. But now, after a not very successful presidency of the representative of the socialist party, françois Hollande, the socialist party in this election will lose a significant number of mandates.
According to the expert of the Ukrainian Institute of policy analysis and management Mr Will, the rating of the government of Hollande has suffered because of the socio-economic crisis that broke out in France.
“The main is, of course, belt-tightening, budget, economy, labor reform and socio-economic themes. Plus the French government holds the anti-Russian sanctions…Farmers are outraged that they lack support and they suffer from anti-Russian sanctions. There were too many negative factors for the socialist President Hollande and the socialist government,” says Will.
In addition to unpopular reforms, the policy of “belt-tightening” and budget savings, minus the socialist government played the terrorist attacks and the immigration crisis, the expert said.
In addition to unpopular reforms, the policy of “belt-tightening” and budget savings, minus the socialist government played the terrorist attacks and the immigration crisis, the expert said.
A number of these factors in the new French Parliament the socialists will not be able to obtain a significant number of mandates, said the expert in international law Anton kuchukhidze.
“If you take 2012, it turns out in the Parliament was almost the majority socialists, and the President and the government was fully formed. Now, given the negative, which is, I think that they have small chances to fight for top places,” he says.
So, according to the latest OpinionWay poll, in the new French Parliament the socialists can get from 28 to 43 seats, says Kuchukhidze.
At the same time, the expert says, the President-elect of France Emmanuel Makron two years was the Minister of economy, industry and digital Affairs to the socialists. Now it is positioned as an independent candidate.
“I think that officially, of course, he would distance himself from this whole heritage, but at the level of nomination of candidates, etc. it is possible that some policies that were previously socialists, can join the Makron,” says Kuchukhidze.
THE FORCE OF THE MAKRON HAS CHANCES OF SUCCESS. The Makron will go to the polls with his movement Forward. At the same time, he has a chance to bring to Parliament a large number of his supporters, said political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko. So, the popularity of Macron and his result at the presidential elections will work in favor of the party and can help a lot of candidates from this movement to become members of Parliament.
Emmanuel Macron. Photo: news.pn
“But dokhturova system, regional differences in France too, will complicate the situation for candidates from moving Forward. Not just will be the party of Macron to repeat the success of the Macron”, – said Fesenko.
“But dokhturova system, regional differences in France too, will complicate the situation for candidates from moving Forward.” Not just will be the party of Macron to repeat the success of the Macron”, – said Fesenko.
Earlier representatives of the movement “Forward”, said that its members will be presented in 577 the majority of districts and that they will fight almost a majority in Parliament, says Anton Kuchukhidze. At the same time, the expert notes that, according to sociological data, 24% of voters who were behind the Makron in the second round, is likely to vote against Le Pen.
“You need to keep in mind that a rating of Makron, which he received in the second round of the presidential elections is not his personal rating. This included the votes of center-right Republican party, which has decided that it is better to support Him than to assume the presidency, Le Pen. In the result of the Makron also includes the voices of socialists and various politically oriented groups of French citizens,” says Mr wild.
According to experts, movement “Forward” in the upcoming elections may get 25-30% of the seats in Parliament. This political party needs 289 seats, said Anton Kuchukhidze. Today, according to sociological data, the movement of Macron Forward can score from 249 to 286. But this is the most positive forecast, he said.
THE “REPUBLICANS” WILL BE ONE OF THE LARGEST FACTIONS. Another strong political force in this election will be the Republicans, experts say. According to political analyst Vladimir Fesenko, the party will be one of the largest factions in the National Assembly of France. However, the question now is whether the Republicans would be consolidated and how they will be able to increase the rating, and whether the result of the election of the presidential candidate françois Fillon his personal rating or is the level of support by the French “Republicans”.
“The question will be who will lead them in the election because there is information that Fillon refuses to lead the party in the elections. But the chances of them is good enough. Sociology gives conservative parties, the Republicans just to them and treat 200 to 210 places. Not the fact that they will get them, but in these places they have the opportunity to fight,” – said the expert in international law Anton kuchukhidze.
REVENGE LE PEN WILL NOT. As for the party “national front” and its representative marine Le Pen, the result will depend on the strategy with which the force will go to the polls. However, expect the stunning success of “popular front” is not worth it, says Anton Kuchukhidze.
“Strengthening (the positions of the party – Ed.) if happens, it will be very insignificant, he says. – A maximum of a couple of dozen. According to surveys by Opinion Way, they should get 15 to 20 seats”.
This is also the opinion of the expert Mr Will. According to him, “the popular front” at least and increase its presence in Parliament, but it is unlikely the CPU will get at least a quarter of all mandates.
Macron will be to unite with other political forces
If the winner of the presidential elections Emmanuel macron will not be able to be held in the French National Assembly a sufficiently large number of its deputies, then his opportunities as the President will be limited, says Vladimir Fesenko.
“France is a presidential-parliamentary system, so there the Parliament does not play a decisive role in government formation. Here, after all, the initiative of the President. But the Parliament is very important from the point of view of the provision of legislative effectiveness of the President and government, – said the expert. – If there is no support, your majority, the President and the government will not be able to carry out part of its initiatives through Parliament, every time they will have to negotiate.”
At the same time, in order to obtain the majority of the force of the Makron can unite with the centrist parties and individual deputies, representing the centrist position, Fesenko said.
Macron initially positioned itself as an independent, but given how he was supported by the French establishment, and that without his support it will be difficult to get a majority, it is in this situation fall into a dead end, said Anton Kuchukhidze. He will have to unite and with the traditional parties and with those who support the establishment.
According to Vladimir Will, in the new Parliament looks the most likely coalition between the Macron and the center-right, that is, “Republicans”, etc. They can create a governing majority, he said.
“Now everything goes to the fact that the main ally of the Macron in the Parliament to be the party of Sarkozy – a friend of Putin, françois Fillon – a friend of Putin and Alain Juppe – though not a friend of Putin, but he just did not communicate with him. That is, the right Bank can not be avoided. It’s better to be an Alliance of Makron-the centre-right than to defeat the center-right and free up space for Le Pen,” said Will.
