If you relied on that unpredictable Donald trump will change the untenable middle East policy of the United States, the next paragraph will unequivocally tell you that you have lost.
“Today we are officially taking note of Iran”, — told reporters the national security adviser Michael Flynn on the thirteenth day of the new administration.
If you remember, trump during the election campaign has publicly stated that the priority for him is the defeat of ISIL (banned in Russia organization — approx. TRANS.). Why then this sudden confrontation with the Islamic Republic of Iran? Maybe Flynn thinks otherwise, but ISIS and Iran are not one and the same: they are the complete opposite of each other.
Iran is the natural regional hegemon because of its size, population and development indicators. The country where the majority are Shia, for centuries has not waged war and inter-state relations it builds using the tools of soft power. Iran is building a diversified innovation-based economy, boasts a rich cultural heritage and respectful of ethnic and cultural diversity.
ISIS is a non — governmental education, driven by radical, imbued with Wahhabi interpretation of Islam, and uses brutal terror tactics to seize territory and enslave the people. The policy of terror ISIS marked by extreme intolerance of dissent, the organization destroys the monuments of history and culture, as well as massively destroys people whom he considers infidels — particularly Shiites.
And now trump is going to ignore that fundamental truth, for ignoring which Obama and Clinton in the middle East have failed: you can not fight together with ISIS and Iran in the hope of a win. You must choose one enemy, but otherwise should prepare for endless conflict.
Terrorist groups like ISIS, “al-Qaeda” (banned in Russia — approx. TRANS.) and other Salafi militants entrenched in its strongholds in Syria and Iraq consider Iran as its main regional enemy. After all, the Islamic Republic of Iran entered into an Alliance with Damascus, and Baghdad. Iran trains, arms and sends armies and militias, which are now successfully exterminate the jihadists.
Whenever the US is trying to isolate Iran or to downplay its importance, they only weaken those regional military forces engaged in a major armed struggle against ISIS and “al-Qaeda”.
The hawks in Washington panicked when Tehran began to transfer their dominant influence from the Eastern Mediterranean to the Persian Gulf. But it develops its strategy and tactics in the region due to the fact that there are strengthened ISIL and al-Qaeda. The situation there directly injected the US and its NATO and Arab allies, which had supported the insurgent extremists.
As they say, chasing two hares, you will catch neither. The States of the region see in the confrontation between ISIS and al-Qaida fighting for its existence, and will fight them to the end. And for the United States, located thousands of miles from watered by the blood of the battlefields, the prospects are not so bleak. However, the consequences from the fact that jihadist terror has been unleashed (partly in order to contain Iran and its allies), now make themselves felt, and on the Western coast, which security has become a state priority.
Ready Washington to abandon its failed policies and make the critical choice between Iran and ISIS? If trump wants it, the plan to defeat ISIS and “al-Qaeda” is quite feasible, and it won’t cost able to negotiate with the businessman-President of the dime.
A powerful punch for small money
All the military components necessary to defeat ISIS and “al-Qaeda”, today are available and are in Syria and Iraq. These States have armed forces that collaborate with major voluntary paramilitary militias and obey the Central command. In Syria, they help the Russian air force, as in Iraq, coalition aircraft under the leadership of the United States. From the Western flank they secure the border with Lebanon, and with Iran.
What is missing is the willingness of all external forces interact to achieve a common goal which is the destruction of LIH and “al Qaeda” as well as determined to set aside all other ambitions and interests.
This means that Washington should abandon its actively perpetuated the idea that to fight with ISIS can only Kurds and Sunni Arabs. With this I can not accept multi-religious and multi-ethnic army of Syria and Iraq, as well as interacting with them paramilitaries. But today they are winning numerous victories over the LIH and “al Qaeda”.
Leading us news media often do not attach importance or ignore their successes. This is mainly due to the fact that the main driving force and organizer of these victories are the traditional enemies of America (and the Shiites). But to exclude Shiites from the armed struggle is foolish. Today they constitute the demographic majority from the Eastern Mediterranean to the Persian Gulf and are the obvious source of manpower, fighting against ISIS and “al-Qaeda”, which threaten this part of population.
It is necessary to stop all other interferences which are not aimed at elimination of the main threat. We are talking about the defeat or weakening of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, on the dismemberment of States, the creation of a Kurdish federations and the support of the militants. Instead, the United States and its allies should focus on General objectives, which are border security, intelligence sharing, liquidation of channels of financing of terrorists and to engage in the conduct of important military operations under the command, which will approve Russia and Syria.
When trump will sit down with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the negotiating table during their first, yet to be announced meeting, they will have a good opportunity to all his authority to support the implementation of this joint task.
During the inauguration, trump promised: “We will strive for friendship and benevolent relations with all countries of the world. But we will do this with full understanding that every country has the right to put their interests first.”
This implies that Russia, Syria, Iran, Iraq and Lebanon are also unable to defend their interests in their regions.
The Russian-American agreement on combating ISIS and “al-Qaeda” can lead to the fact that Syria will remain in power, Assad, and Iran will become stronger and more confident. But the advantages of such an agreement are huge and have a worldwide impact.
In the “war on terror” will be won, and this will be an important capital asset of the trump from the point of view of American voters and the world community. To do this he will be able with minimal cost, without sending in a war zone American soldiers. Specific Washington’s support in the fight against terror will open up for him those middle Eastern markets that were previously inaccessible due to political difficulties or security problems. The destruction of the sources of funding and inspiration for the global Jihad. A trump can take credit for a dramatic improvement in relations with the Russian Federation following the example of Nixon, relegating two States from the edge of the abyss of confrontation and opening a new era of bilateral cooperation.
In the process of this work may be a weakening of the traditional Washington’s relations with some countries, however, the damage can be minimized. If we abandon the Kurdish projects of the Obama administration, will be back on track U.S.-Turkish relations, and the distrust of Arabs, Iranians and Turks to the intentions of the United States and the Kurds will subside.
Saudi Arabia, Qatar and other major sponsors of ISIL, “al-Qaeda” and militant groups of Salafists will have to rein in. But their interest in fighting in Syria and Iraq in any case weakened in connection with the downturn in the national economy, internal strife and escalating conflict in Yemen. Their security infrastructure is so closely intertwined with U.S. forces that they can’t afford a fight with trump on this issue as the financing of terrorism, which is causing global condemnation.
As for Israel and its obsession with Iran, the Americans can not and should not overshadow important national security interests in order to forever babysit this state. Trump can take credit for the fact that Israel’s security was strengthened, but it is necessary to make your point.
All these objectives will be unattainable, if the administration trump will continue its confrontational policy towards Iran. There is no such Sunni or Kurdish troops, which could alone defeat ISIS and al-Qaeda. If the US could raise and train these troops in sufficient quantity, then Washington would have done it in Iraq in 2003.
As noted by Russian foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, “Iran has never been seen in any relations with either the IG or the “al-Nusra Dzhebhat” (banned in the Russian terrorist gangs — ed. TRANS.). Moreover, Iran is contributing to the fight against ISIS. We have long advocated that to form a truly universal front against terrorism. I am convinced that if we objectively approach potential participants in such a coalition, Iran needs to be part of our common efforts.”
Can trump to overcome the established worldview of Washington against Iran, given what the hawks have gathered around him? Will he be able to appreciate the effectiveness of the alternative plan and to escape from their clutches? What will win in this man: decisive leader business or unsure and inexperienced politician who listens to the promptings of the tested Washington veterans who have no new ideas?
But here’s the thing. The Syrians, Iranians, Iraqis, Lebanese and Russian in any case, defeat ISIS and al-Qaeda, and they don’t care to participate in this USA or not.
Let’s see what happens when trump will meet with Putin.