What lies behind the renewed fighting in Ukraine? Over the past week in the Donbass — Eastern region of the country, which is a hotbed of separatist activity since the beginning of armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine in the spring of 2014, there have been a number of serious clashes between the Ukrainian army and the rebels, acting with the support of Russia. Under the destructive fire appeared Avdeevka, Ukrainian city with a population of about 20 thousand people, and international observers hastily calling for the conclusion of an agreement on a cease-fire. According to Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, currently we are talking about the “extraordinary situation on the verge of a humanitarian catastrophe”.
The flow of mutual accusations does not dry out. Russian officials blamed for the current violence in Ukraine, condemning the “provocative actions” of the Kiev and believing that Poroshenko uses the conflict as a way to recapture the attention of the West. The Ukrainian government, for its part, calls the next armed conflict “striking evidence of the gross neglect with which Russia continues to treat its obligations under the Minsk agreements.” We are talking about a long-suffering agreement on the ceasefire signed between Kiev and Moscow in February 2015.
Given the vast and widespread evidence of Russian interference in Eastern Ukraine have every reason to trust Kiev. But perhaps the most convincing argument in favor of the assertion that the initiator of the current round of violence is Russia, is simply this: the resumption of fighting basically coincides with the start of a thaw in relations between Washington and Moscow.
Indeed, a new offensive was undertaken just a few hours after the long-awaited telephone conversation of Russian President Vladimir Putin met with President Donald trump over the weekend, during which, apparently, the new President made clear he was willing to give the Russian leader a wide freedom of action in the “near abroad.”
On the eve of their conversation were rumors that trump may unilaterally ease sanctions against Russia to strengthen trust in relations with the Kremlin. This did not happen, but it is not clear what actually happened. So far, the administration trump has not published a detailed report about the conversation that took place on 28 January (the White house confined itself to publish a formal summary of the conversation despite the fact that he lasted nearly an hour).
However, we have a good idea of what Putin and other Russian officials, in their own opinion heard. Kremlin prepared by the Russian-language summary of a much larger American and, apparently, it is assumed that the White house used the call to lend Moscow a diplomatic olive branch. As noted expert on Russia Paul Goble (Paul Goble), among other things, in Russian summary it is stated that in the course of the conversation, “an implicit recognition of spheres of influence and equality of Russia and the United States as “partners”,” and there was also the promise to end the isolation, “continuing since the invasion of the Ukraine”.
Against this background, the Russian leaders can be forgiven their perceptions of the ability to greatly expand their freedom of action in the “post-Soviet space”, and confirmation that we are witnessing today in Ukraine. “Either Putin feels the reaction of the new American President, or he already feels he can count on the tacit approval trump another escalation in the East of Ukraine, — says the magazine Business Ukraine. In any case, the current Russian offensive does not Bode well”.
So the White house faces the unpleasant choice. Trump has long been suspected that he was going to build with Russia is much more peaceful relationship. As recent events in the Donbass, Putin and his government clearly interpreted this desire as a notification about the greater freedom of action in relation to Ukraine — and potentially other former Soviet lands.
At the moment it is not clear whether the Russian interpretation of American politics is correct. However, the continued silence of the administration to trump Putin and all of us may give the impression that the way it is.
