This Friday (20 January) begins a new era in American foreign policy. The current President of the largest world power, Donald trump features a very unique style. The contrast with Obama is obvious not only in shape, but mainly in the content.
Working to the rhythm of a campaign, trump has not yet had time enough to imagine the scope and impact of its statements on political allies, financial market and strategic opponents.
For eight years the foreign policy of the Obama administration, lulled by its own rhetoric, shuttled between the individual successes and serious failures.
The General features of the diplomacy of Obama emerges on the basis of three prerequisites: 1) to restore the reputation of Washington, tarnished under the Bush administration — in a period marked by unilateral U.S. initiatives on the world stage in the multilateral system; 2) rapprochement with China, building balanced and mutually beneficial relationship for both parties in international trade; 3) to reduce the weight of U.S. liabilities in the global security architecture and simultaneously lowering the degree of threat to national security.
On the other hand, diplomacy Twitter, the proposed new occupant of the White house, indicates that international order can be inverted. Yet in foreign policy trump is making a sudden movement.
The question is how long the chief will be able to continue in the same rhythm without damage to itself.
In fact, Trump will not be easy to change the tone of foreign policy rhetoric in view of the influence of Congress, the Pentagon and the US state Department. It will be hard to translate his rhetoric into life to bypass these institutions. We are talking about very high risks for the stability of its management and sustainability of the world. Latin America expects the worst; confused Europeans and Africans apparently do not enter into the picture of the world of the new President.
Meanwhile, the insular politics of Washington is all that eager China is to map out the contours of a new trade geography of the world. Because China, with its weight and capacity, have not connected all the resources of his true power.
Obama has made mistakes in foreign policy strategy, and it allowed Russia to fill the incredible size of the power vacuum in the international system. If trump will make a choice in favor of unrestrained escalation with China, there would be a vacuum that can be filled with Beijing.
Trump repeats the strategy of Nixon, but inside out. Nixon became friendly with the Chinese in the 1970-ies, trying to play on the enmity between Moscow and Beijing and to destabilize the power of the USSR.
At least rhetorically, trump tries to make China a hostile reaction, while moving closer to Moscow in an attempt to paralyze the Chinese government.
However, China and Russia seem to have entered into a strategic Alliance in order to undermine American power. Moscow undertakes to fill the political vacuum, and the Beijing economic.
As the Alliance between Europe and America, apparently, is not part of the priorities trump, this new order can be a much easier path to success. It seems, trump haven’t figured it out.