Interview with employee of the National centre for scientific research that “predicted” the success of Breccia and trump. In his opinion, the rate of absenteeism will be decisive in the second round of the presidential election.
He “predicted” Brakcet and the victory of Donald trump. Galam Serge (Serge Galam) — no ordinary physicist and specialist in “sociophysics”. This fellow, National center for scientific research applies models of dynamics of public opinion for the elections. In this regard, he also works at the Center for political studies of Paris Institute of political studies.
He stressed that his avant-garde work is at the “exploratory stage” and thus “not valid” from a scientific point of view, however, trying to predict the electoral dynamics, “trying to discover the laws of human interactions that define the movement of public opinion in one direction or another”. He reviewed the results of the first round of the presidential election with his model and is willing to share with us the insights.
L’express: After the first round of Emmanuel macron seem to be the undisputed favorite of the elections. He came first, and it supports a larger number of voters not qualified for the second round candidates. Do you agree with this point of view?
Serge Galam: When I use my model of the dynamics of public opinion to duel Le Pen-macron, I have obtained the same conclusions as in all surveys: marine Le Pen loses the election. If you start from the known positions of the electorate, according to my model it cannot go over required to win the 50% mark. It prevents the existence of the national front. More than 50% of voters in France are strongly against the National front. If NF wins, they will vote against it, that is an alternative candidate. That is why marine Le Pen loses.
Only here alternative candidate Emmanuel macron (the same would be, in principle, with Fillon and Jean-Luc Mélenchon) for the first time puts sincerely opposed to NF voters in front of a difficult personal, political and ethical dilemma. They are characterized by a rejection of NF, but at the same time, and the strongest rejection of Him and his policies. That is to work together to oppose natsfronta, they would have to swallow a very bitter pill.
It is possible that election day will be used in a variety of excuses to “forget” to vote. All this can result in failing. Although we cannot determine the number of people who can’t swallow the pill, you could display a mathematical formula.
— How is it?
— If we take the share of supporters of Le Pen, and the expected turnout, it is possible to calculate the critical turnout for the Macron below which it loses the election. Let’s take two examples. If marine Le Pen is going to vote 42%, and 90% of these people will reach areas, it wins with a turnout of supporters of Macron less age of 65.17%. So, if, for example, will vote 65% of them, marine Le Pen will win with a score of 50,07%.
Assume that the variance in turnout of 25% is unlikely. In this case, consider another example. If marine Le Pen support 44% with a 90% turnout, the critical threshold for Macron rises to 70,71%. This means that if “only” 70% of his supporters will reach areas, Le Pen will win with a score of 50.25%. In this case, the difference is only 20%. The greater number of the French are willing to support Le Pen, the higher the turnout need the Macron. Moreover, the increase is non-linear: a two percent increase in the number of votes for Le Pen led in the example considered the examples to five per cent increase in turnout necessary for the Macron.
— Does this mean that the victory of marine Le Pen?
Yes. I believe that it is possible, because these hypotheses seem reasonable.
— Do not you think that the refusal of Jean-Luc Mélenchon to support any of the candidates may play a decisive role?
Yes. There is a sort of secret no-show, as there was a shameful vote for NetFront in the beginning of the party. Anyway, the psychological burden is less because to abstain is not the same as voting for Le Pen, even if such a decision contributes to the election. The fact that Mélenchon did not take a clear position (at least immediately), destroys existed for a long time the ban. On Tuesday came the hashtag #sansmoile7mai (#безменя7мая), which becomes an argument in favor of my hypothesis about the absence.
— How marine Le Pen could turn this into a strategic advantage?
— There is a double interest. She wants the voters supported her, and those who are against it, did not go to vote. It is necessary to strengthen the dilemma of voting for Rules and the bitterness of this “pill”. She is interested in contributing to his rejection.
