The party “law and Justice” (PiS) has been in power for just over a year, and for the second time during this time the Warsaw signal that he wants in the long term to access nuclear weapons. To the American or European, because their own remains an unattainable dream for even the most daring science fiction defensively.
When in December last year, the newly minted Deputy Minister of defense Tomasz shatkovskaya (Tomasz Szatkowski) gave in a television broadcast an affirmative answer to the question, does the government prepare “concrete steps” to accede to the nuclear program, NATO, the next day of Ministry followed by a rebuttal. The careless statement of the former head of the National centre for strategic studies, explained that it is because of the recent change post confused the role of the Minister and the expert.
Now to refute and deny it will be more difficult, since nuclear weapons came from the lips of the Chairman of “Law and Justice” Jaroslaw Kaczynski (Jarosław Kaczyński). Informal the head of state is a much more important figure than the Deputy Minister. However, the reality of his concept is not added.
First: politics
The administration of Donald trump shows no signs that it intends to withdraw the U.S. from NATO and to deprive the allies of the “nuclear umbrella”. Such a prospect seems as unlikely as the decision to openly provoke Russia. However, after winning the trump in the German press began a discussion about what Europe needs to attain nuclear independence from the United States, however, this issue has not gone beyond journalistic reflection.
To discussion joined the famous “hawk” of the Christian democratic Union Roderich Kiesewetter (Roderich Kiesewetter), but he has failed to shake the anti-nuclear and anti-war in General, the position of the Germans. European nuclear weapons, which said Kaczynski in conversation with the Frankurter Allgemeine, is impossible without a European army, the command structure, common defence budget and that is symbolic of the thumb which presses on the symbolic nuclear button. Does someone in this role?
Second, the risk
If you start a real war, bases that are of strategic weapons, will be the first target for the missile, and possibly nuclear attack. Under the current system the risk take on the United States that have as a system of protection of bases and its own deterrent capability. In addition, in 1997, the NATO promised Russia not to deploy nuclear weapons on the territory of new member countries. While the Alliance has not abandoned this promise, although after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, he decided to send a rotational contingent on its Eastern flank. Poland missile defense system is not, however, no system capable of intercepting all the missiles.
To turn the tide of the conflict, only one nuclear explosion. Accompanied by bold statements about joining the nuclear program of the NATO nuclear bomb shelters or to inform people about the consequences of nuclear war? Of course not, because it would be political suicide. It is much easier to cherish dreams about nuclear power…
Third: money
Even if the US (hypothetically, because it is hard to imagine) agree on the active participation of Poland in the system of nuclear defence, the existing military budget is such a burden does not pull. We have no infrastructure for the storage of nuclear bombs B61 (only the Americans provide allies) and the Polish F-16s are not equipped to transport them (they practiced only support cars of double appointment). Will have to build a new base, because the Caresses and Krzesiny are in a zone of defeat of Russian “Iskander” and also to adapt the F-16 aircraft to equip with nuclear weapons. The second is not of great technical difficulty, although, of course, the political burden of this decision will be huge. However, investment will need billions zlotys.
Just in case Jaroslaw Kaczynski has mentioned that he is going to bring the defense budget to 3% of GDP, i.e. approximately 17 billion zloty (4 billion euros — approx. TRANS.). In the text, which is published Gazeta Polska, no, however, neither the question nor answer where to get the money or someone can pick them up.
The only scenario in which the transfer of us nuclear weapons in Poland as part of NATO seems theoretically possible — a sharp deterioration of relations with Russia, de-facto situation, bordering war. Needed in this step is not only if not to speak about the satisfaction of political ambitions and, if anything, the treatment of complexes. Base, where there are now nuclear bombs and airplanes, which can serve as a means of delivery that are located so far away that they cannot hit the Russian “Iskander”, but at the same time so close to potential targets to use.
However, as a weapon of mass destruction they are intended not for use but for deterrence.
