The debt of Belarus for gas has reached $ 550 million recalled last Friday, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich. According to him, progress in the negotiations with Minsk no. “We insist on paying in full last year for the formula that was earlier,” he pointed out.
This means that the next trip of the Belarusian delegation to the Russian capital was zero. Spit found on the stone. Not only in oil and gas matters.
The conflict between Minsk and Moscow is comprehensive: in addition to oil and gas, “here are tied and Eurasian integration, and access to the Russian market”, and so on — in General, “a large tangle of problems,” he said in comments to Naviny.by Denis Melyantsou, analyst with the Belarusian Institute for strategic studies (BISS, Vilnius).
Why bit between their teeth and in Minsk, and in Moscow?
In the latest edition produced by the Institute “Belarus’ foreign policy index” notes that late last year the relations with Russia have deteriorated to an absolute minimum for the entire period of analysis (since 2011).
“Unresolved problems remain on all lines of interaction: the conditions of supply of gas and oil, the conditions of movement of third country nationals through the Belarusian-Russian border, the border authority Rosselkhoznadzor in respect of supplies of Belarusian foodstuffs, the basis for inclusion of Belarusian products to the Russian government order and others,” says another study.
“In short, to find a sphere in which differences would not be at all difficult,” the authors summarize the issue.
The allies had seriously quarrelled before, even came to the disconnection of gas, but such a long clinch, as now, hard to remember.
Why in Moscow and in Minsk, so ate a bit?
One of the reasons that Russia is now much less than before, money for the support of the allies, says Melyantsou. And that, in his opinion, Moscow moves to greater hardness, if an ally is not fully in line with its foreign policy. The analyst, in particular, suggests that one of the stumbling blocks might be a question about placing in Belarus the Russian airbase.
And in General, “Russia has changed, began to claim a bigger role in world politics, to pursue a more aggressive foreign policy.” In this regard, Moscow wants to show the Belarusian ally, “which is regarded rather as a satellite,” his place, to induce discipline, says Melyantsou. So, in his opinion, the current conflict is dictated not so much monetary, how many principle.
What’s next? Is it possible to say that the era of integration comes to an end?
Belarus has a critical dependence on Russia, says Melyantsou. Therefore, he predicts, Minsk (despite the fact that here are able to aggravate the situation) will be forced to seek a compromise with Moscow, even if this compromise will be more in her favor.
Today alternative bilateral integration just yet, said the analyst. But the Belarusian authorities will seek to “parallel develop other directions of cooperation”.
Reduced rations could become the new norm
In particular, Alexander Lukashenko has told his subordinates to look for alternative oil supplies. But commentators unanimously repeat: it will be much more expensive.
Belarus is advantageous to have alternative oil supplies at least one to two million tons per year, even if the oil is “significantly more expensive”, said in comments to Naviny.by editor of “Our opinion”, the expert in issues of Belarusian-Russian relations Valery Kostygova.
Judging by the fact that the representatives of Moscow say publicly, even if the resolution of the gas conflict, deliveries of Russian oil this year will be restored only up to 18 million tons, said Kostygova.
Here it is worth Recalling that in may 2014 the same Dvorkovich following the results of negotiations with first Vice Premier of Belarus Vladimir Semashko said: signed an agreement under which in the years 2016-2024, Russia will supply Belarus by 24 million tons of oil annually.
However, the second half of last year, deliveries were curtailed as punishment for failure to pay gas debt. That was for the Belarusian partners unpleasant surprise, because such sanctions any contracts not provided. That is, it was a step in the spirit of a domestic: Oh, you are so, then here you go!
However, we note that the Belarusian side was acting no legal methods when starting in 2016, decided to pay for the gas at the contract price of 132 dollars per thousand cubic meters, and in one-sided calculated “fair” — $ 73.
As a result, Belarus over the past year instead of the desired 24 million tonnes of oil (which would ensure full utilization of refineries in Mozyr and Novopolotsk) received only slightly more than 18 million tons.
Now, as you can see, this pared-down Lunches can become the new norm. In addition, the refinery itself has become for Belarus less profitable, since exported gasoline and diesel fuel is cheaper. A tax maneuver in the Russian oil industry threatens not to pull up by the roots the profitability of our refinery.
Similarly, methodically cuts back Moscow benefits in other areas, all meaner gives loans (and hangs tranches have already been allocated).
“Brotherly integration” as the end, but claw stuck
In General, it is obvious that Belarusian-Russian integration, though not exhausted, but finally ceased to be “brotherly”. This epithet before sounded wrong, and now almost out of use. The Kremlin has become tougher and more pragmatic. But the Belarusian leader is increasingly talking about threats to sovereignty, and is transparent enough to clearly identify which side he sees these threats.
The new battalions and the tanks of NATO in neighboring countries, according to our Ministry of foreign Affairs, are not perceived as a direct threat to Belarus. To be honest, Minsk is strongly fighting off the prospects for strengthening Russian military presence.
The Belarusian leadership was too high given the current normalization of relations with the West, to present it to sacrifice for the sake of foreign policy ambitions of the Kremlin. And just afraid to put all your eggs in one Russian basket.
At the same time, Moscow commentators are indignant about this as they believe the ingratitude, repeatedly pushing on the offensive to Belarusians, but irrefutable thing: Yes, you do without Russian economic support to an end! And if so, then, they say, to evade allied debt nothing!
The Belarusian leadership over the years of “brotherly integration” really brought the country into the trap of assuming greater obligations to Moscow and settling the economy on the needle of Russian subsidies instead of reforming it.
Now Lukashenko is forced to adopt de facto the language of their internal and eternal opponents about the threats to the independence, lack of respect for the original roots and the state of our nation (“We will not allow anyone to humiliate our people and the state”). That, by the way, creates conflict and in the minds of the opponents of the regime. Because on the one hand — Yes, very-nice, but it would be better Lukashenka survived against Moscow than his crush.
The drama of the moment is compounded by the fact that the regime is not ready for an intra-Belarusian dialogue and reforms.
This means that in the worst case weakened, Russian-starved national identity in Belarus can be after some time quietly incorporated in the “best” — will maneuver on the edge of the abyss, tormenting the economy pluriformity and remaining by and large a stranger to Europe.
Yes, and much will depend on how vegetarian relative to neighboring countries will be in the coming years, the mood of the Kremlin.
