Before the New year in the Crimea adopted the Strategy of socio-economic development of the Peninsula up to 2030. The main theme of the document: “All inclusive”. And this is not the main principle of tourism development on the Peninsula, and the implementation of four components of life: “All inclusive: live, learn, work, relax in the Crimea.”
In General, the document is quite similar to the Soviet plans, which pathetically described how the party cares about the welfare of the Soviet people. Crimean strategy — about the same concern, only without specifying a party affiliation. Although 2030 may well be adjustments to make.
“The main value of the Republic of Crimea is the people, all the efforts of the authorities aimed at improving the quality of life, creating the best conditions for the full and harmonious development of personality and its realization”, — the document says.
Importance unrealistic strategy tried to give with pathos and abundance of foreign words, thereby coming into conflict with the Russian theory of import substitution.
However, the basic pillars of the Crimean future, according to the document, is the use of innovative technologies (“smart economy”), attract investors and, of course, human capital development, which the authors took the lion’s share of their conclusions. To assess the degree of implementation of this document, with a few key markers.
One of the most important aspects of development of the Crimea should be a solution to the demographic problems and population growth: 1,911 million (1 November 2016) to 2,396 million. The goal, of course, laudable, but elusive, given the mortality and fertility decline. For example, according to Cristeta, January-October 2016 in the Crimea 23.8 thousands of deaths is only 19.2 thousand newborns. Compared to the same period of 2015, the mortality rate increased by 15.4% (600 people) and amounted to 2.9 per thousand of the population. The Russians hope to change this negative trend and by 2030, to achieve a natural growth rate of +0.8.
The bulk rate of increase of the population the authors of the Strategy make for migrants — the migration growth must not fall below 10%, they say. Indeed, over the past two years, the population growth on the Peninsula were provided solely at the expense of newcomers. However, by the end of 2016, those wishing to come to the Crimea has become much smaller. If in 2015 came 16,3 thousand people, over ten months of 2016 — only 9.4 thousand. And this trend is likely to persist for various reasons: problems with electricity, water, not too high salaries along with the harsh statements of the Crimean people “validating” stop those who were thinking about moving.
In addition to raising the fertility rate (to 2.22 children per woman) is also planned by 2030 to increase life expectancy by 4 years — with 70,52 to 74.5 years, as well as to reduce the mortality rate doubled from 15.4% to 7. In what way? The most logical thing to do with the help of the health sector, where the planned increase of the number of doctors up to 60 people per 10 thousand of population. However, how to achieve this, given that in 2015 the number of doctors in medical institutions budget only reduced and reached the Crimea in General, only 37.7% of the authors of the Strategy did not come up.
Of course, you can try to move doctors from other regions of Russia, but there is medical surplus is not observed. Therefore, in the Crimea the shortage of medical personnel plan to solve due to expansion on 40% of the market of paid medical services. Given that, according to the forecasts of Russian economists, the country will face a long stagnation, and the income growth of the population will have to forget, the displacement state of medicine is likely to lead to higher mortality than the increase in life expectancy.
Ecology and inter-ethnic peace
The Strategy is thought out and environmental issues: planned to increase the number of green spaces from 21.28 to 30 sq m per person. And then ask the question: to plant trees will have after you cut out those that are? For anybody not a secret, how savagely destroy perennial trees in the Crimea for the construction of elite cottage settlements, quarrying, banal cut the budget or simply because of the shortage of firewood, facing the Peninsula.
Not paid attention to the authors of the Strategy and the problem of maintaining inter-ethnic peace on the Peninsula, which they decided to increase the number of cultural events of national subjects almost doubled — from 54 to 96, which, in their opinion, will lead to the inevitable increase in the number of people satisfied with inter-ethnic situation on the Peninsula to 96%.
Special attention in the Crimean Strategy on economic growth, which is planned to be achieved by increasing the share of high-tech enterprises and attracting investments.
Analyzing industrial potential of the Crimea, the Russians were forced to recognize that the share produced on the Peninsula high-tech products were in 2014, 20.3 percent, which exceeded the national average. However, this was not enough, and the document prescribed the further growth of such products up to 40% of the total volume of the gross regional product. However, what resources will be achieved this growth is not specified. Logically the rate should be done on the introduction of IT-technologies. By the way, initially the Russian authorities in the Crimea, promised to make the Peninsula an analogue of the American Silicon valley, but a little confused with the terminology and promised to build a “Silicon valley”. However, due to Western sanctions, programmers began to leave Crimea, and now on the Peninsula — an acute shortage of specialists in the computer industry.
But that doesn’t stop the authors of the Strategy, which I hope to solve the problems of economic development of the Peninsula due to the increase in the number of patented scientific developments dozens of times — with 0.14 today (for 10 thousand population) to 2.8 in 2030. Therefore, in the so-called drivers of innovation development (e.g. the Crimean Federal University) accelerating work to build the equivalent of software “Microsoft” or cover 5. However, to earn these technical developments is unknown, but it does not matter — what matters is that the number of patents has increased.
An important element of the Strategy, without which it can not be implemented — investment. According to calculations, the total number of investments in the economy of the Peninsula by 2030 is expected to reach 438 billion (at the current ratio of the U.S. to an estimated 7.4 billion dollars). The volume of direct foreign investments is planned in the amount of 1.98 billion dollars. However, on what foreign investors expect in Russia in conditions of sanctions against the Crimea, it is difficult to say. It is likely that this aspect can earn only after the abolition of Western restrictions against the Crimea, which is unlikely to happen soon.
Another source of growth for the economy of the Peninsula — the tourists by 2030 in the Crimea is expected in the amount of 8.3 million people. By the way, as tourists visited the Crimea on the eve of the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1988.
Even if we dismiss traffic problems (imagine that the bridge across the Kerch Strait has been constructed), forget about energy deficit, which needs to solve two TPS, unless, of course, will receive the German turbine, unresolved remains one problem — the water, without which neither the local nor the tourist, as they say, “neither the amplitude nor syudy.” But what to do with this problem, the authors of the Strategy, even at the end of the SWAT analysis and not think, limited to standard measures for repair of water pipelines, desalination of sea water, which is quite expensive, and the purification of sewage.
In General, with all the abundance of beautiful and odd words, a multi-page document turned out to be another project that is impossible to implement. But in the Crimea it does not bother anyone, especially given the fact that under the implementation of the Strategy planned to 5.8 trillion rubles, forming a fertile field for “cutting” the remnants of the Russian budget.