What is the future for the national front?

In the second round of parliamentary elections NetFront received eight seats in the National Assembly. Thomas Genol* analyzes possible changes in the strategy of the party.

FigaroVox: the leadership and activists of the National front had the impression that the party suffered a complete failure. What is the reason?

The volume of Genol: At first glance, gaining the NetFront in the power of frustration and a desire to reconsider “the strategy of Philip” (Florian Filippo, the “right hand” of marine Le Pen, advocated the “independence” of France — approx.ed.) can seem paradoxical. In the end, the party for the second time in its history managed to pass the second round of the presidential election. In addition, she broke the record of votes in both rounds. In the second round it was supported by more than 30%, whereas in 2002 Jean-Marie Le Pen (Jean Marie Le Pen) scored in the second round only slightly more than in the first. Finally, the party has eight MPs in the new Parliament against the two in the old. Considering all these results, objectively you could wait for this euphoria around the device NF, from top to bottom.

However, we are now witnessing post-election Blues as the leadership of NetFront and its activists and sympathizers. I see that two main reasons. The first is that marine Le Pen, of course, is not the best way manifested itself in the debate between the two rounds of presidential elections. Let’s face it: in form and content, it was extremely far from the level expected from the leader of the main opposition force and even more from a potential President of the Republic. In other words, activists natsfronta with horror and was surprised to find that the main obstacle to the advancement of their party are the poor quality of their leader. As for the spleen, it is due to doubts about the effectiveness of the strategy of Filippo.

— Why a strategy Filippo was called into question?

— Ideologically, the strategy of Filippo postpones national front from his right-wing roots and turns it into the party of the fighters for sovereignty. This means isolation from Europe and the Euro, the approval of the active role of the state (particularly in economic policy), the priority of the French position in front of everyone else in all areas. From the electoral point of view, this strategy aims to unite the support NF all those voters who said “no” maastrihsky Europe and the constitutional agreement of 2005. This means that the Florian Filippo was to bring together voters of Le Pen and Mélenchon. This allows you to better understand the sequence of messages and pleas from marine Le Pen to the electorate of Jean-Luc Mélenchon (Jean-Luc Mélenchon) between the two rounds of presidential elections.

Some representatives of the NF, including Marion maréchal-Le Pen (Marion Maréchal-Le Pen) and Nicolas Bay (Nicolas Bay) said that, from a purely electoral point of view, the reserves of the NF huge support among the right wing electorate and insignificant among the electorate of Jean-Luc Mélenchon. From this they concluded that they should focus on the split right and to try to attract the majority of voters “Republicans” who agree with NF on public issues, but is scared of a possible rejection of the Euro. They decided that instead of sovereignty Florian Filippo they need to approve the course “hard right”, that is to be to the right of the “Republicans” for social topics (this is already achieved) and economic issues (to take a position against taxes, government and officials). This would mean a return to the ideological line of Jean-Marie Le pen, if we ignore his anti-Semitic provocations.

Until recently, the leader of the dissenters was Marion maréchal-Le Pen: she was approaching the “red line”, but never crossed it. Whatever it was, the Herald of internal protest (she’s untouchable, as is popular in the party and is a member of the dynasty) is gone indefinitely. From this point on and also after taking action against Jean-Marie Le pen, countering the strategy of Filippo is hidden and rarely seen in public. Unlike colleagues from the socialist party of dissent from NF usually act anonymously and in secret from the management.

In any case, from a purely factual point of view, the pre-election forecast of Nacrite dissent was correct: the available researches show that 30% of those who voted for françois Fillon (François Fillon) in the first round, supported marine Le Pen in the second. At the same time, among the electorate of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the number was only 10%. A similar view was voiced in the works of the expert on the electorate natsfronta Gambina joël (Joël Gombin), which came to the conclusion that the party has a lot more potential votes among the voters, “Republicans” than supporters of Mélenchon.

— Can dissent from the NF to go into conflict with the supporters of Filippo strategy on the future of the Congress party?

— As far as I know, such a scenario is widely discussed in mainstream news and political commentators. Honestly, I personally don’t believe it. NetFront is a hereditary absolute monarchy, where internal polling is more of an Advisory nature, and Finance, de facto, are fully controlled by the ruling dynasty. Thus, if NF will rise in rebellion, would end the same way as it was during the conflict, marine Le Pen and Florian Filippo with Jean-Marie Le pen: a crackdown and a large purge.

In addition, some of the current leaders of the NF familiar care Bruno Maigret (Bruno Mégret) in 1998 and the ensuing failure. This applies in particular to Nicolas Vella and Steve Brew (Steeve Briois), which are then left together with Bruno Maigret. The case caused a long split in the family of Le Pen. Thus, the fear of splitting the party is still haunted by her leadership, which makes it unlikely a riot, which would imply an ideological conflict between Filippo and strategy “strategy Marion Marechal-Le Pen”. In addition, whether Karl lang (Carl Lang) or Jean-Claude Martinez (Jean-Claude Martinez), who retired from the party leaders have consistently achieved the most disastrous results of the election. Therefore, all remaining silent about their disagreement so as not to lose their candidate status from the NF.

Personally, I think that some strong personalities, such as Gilbert Collard (Gilbert Collard), would dare openly and publicly to dissent in General, however, all remain in the ranks. In other words, the prospect of a split NF and rebellion against Filippo is almost zero. Although, of course, the scenario of failure of the strategy of Filippo and his political resolve exists in NF. It is possible, but unlikely.

— How could this scenario look like?

— I repeat: NF — hereditary absolute monarchy. For the failure of the strategy of Filippo and his removal from the party leadership is necessary and sufficient solutions to marine Le Pen. In other words, NetFront destiny Florian Filippo solves only marine Le Pen.

What about the fate of Marion maréchal-Le Pen?

— Here again we should remember that the NF — hereditary absolute monarchy. In order to become President of NF, Marion Marechal-Le Pen enough to wait until marine Le Pen will not leave politics. Then she can easily get elected leader of the party.

*Thomas Genol (Thomas Guénolé), political scientist, doctor of political Sciences, lecturer at the Paris Institute of political studies