From our side of the iron curtain, the situation in Avdiivka and nearby looks weird. I read Ukrainian sources and see the words that the soldiers are slowly moving forward. On the UNIAN I read that the militants repulsed the position of the Almaz-1 and Almaz-2. You also say that strikes are by militants. The militants have strokes — that’s understandable, but from the Ukrainians, they are too.
It seems to me that the situation should be perceived a little differently. The point is not who started it; it’s important, but currently secondary. The military is always lying and his leadership, and we, as consumers of information. What follows from this?
Here’s how I see the situation based on those information resources that are available to me: that Ukraine has adopted a new strategy for creeping advance in the separation zone. Step here, step there. Perhaps this is an effective strategy; I would even call it right.
From the Ukrainian side, there is a regular army, and from the DNI of the Russian regular army to keep not — it’s too expensive. You are going to keep military trainers, it can supply weapons, but that’s very regular army in parallel with the Syrian conflict and the severe economic situation, the Kremlin placed in the Donbas not with his hands. Especially if you keep her in there, someone will get in captivity. In short, too expensive.
Therefore, the strategy of the point, but the constant promotion, chosen by Ukraine, rational in this situation. How can answer the NPT? If you sit and wait, the promotion will continue, and so you can lose Debaltsevo — according to Minsk agreements Ukrainian it.
The DNI and the LC to prevent it, so they decided to give an answer at a specific point. This point was elected the item. When international structures say that to blame Russia, there is a reason, because the Hail, naturally, from Russia. It’s even in Russia, everyone understands. In the beds, then they don’t grow, then someone brings them. And we have a good idea who and where, and, respectively, and one of them shoots.
Therefore, a serious escalation, apparently, is the initiative of the DNI, and the creeping expansion, rather — the initiative of Ukraine.
Than it’s all over — that’s an important question, and what does it do DNI. What is it for Ukraine to understand that she has control over most of the communication and increasingly challenging conditions for the existence of the DNI. This is the right strategy under the circumstances. The DNI and the LC of that strategy you can not oppose anything, but because they are trying to inflame the situation. To put Moscow before a choice — or, again, to get involved in the conflict, or to admit that it merges the DNI and the LC. As I understand it, the purpose of the action Zakharchenko is.
Based on this picture of the world, my answer is going to end soon. Because Putin will not get involved, he doesn’t have the resources for it.
He’s afraid to aggravate the situation with the United States, because there seems to be something afoot, and too great a risk that a large fish will break, if you show excessive activity in the DPR. So, most likely, attacks — the result of the activity of the DNI, the goal of which is to force Russia to help.
But Russia will not help. Weapons she is going to deliver military advisers — it is possible, but a regular part of the throw in the Donbass it can not for a number of reasons. Since the military resources of the DNI and the LC is limited, soon it will stall.
What I do not understand — so this is what happens. If everything stops, this will indicate that the strategy of a creeping attack for Ukraine is justified, and in this situation, Putin’s Russia will be faced with a choice: either to climb again in 2014, or not to get and lose the occupied territories.
I’m watching how to react to the media here: of course, they blame on Poroshenko, is expected, but they say this is provocation. They say that Poroshenko has no choice, he was forced to do because strategically loses, and so he needs to blow up the situation. About how I describe the situation in the DNI, our propagandists said about Poroshenko.
This implies that propaganda is preparing the Russian consumer to the fact that Russia must be “wise restraint” and “not to succumb to provocations”. That means that the real troops will not enter. At significant scale to get involved will not.
So my prediction is that it will be another bad peace is coming from the DNI does not have the resources, while the APU they have little, if any. Attacks will be from both sides, will be a provocation, but a serious military action, I do not expect. I think we are now seeing the transition of the war in the propaganda phase: who speaks louder and more often, wins.
Judging by what is happening in the UN, there are already too used to the style of the Putin and don’t trust him; I think even in Russia, are already starting to experience irritation. I see the liberal community condemns Putin’s aggression, and Patriotic — as a weakness, and that he “merges Donbass”. And Russian propaganda is protected by the fact that everyone takes as a provocation of Ukraine is a wise and visionary leader in any case should not yield.
