The victory of Makron — bad news for Putin and good for team Merkel on the world stage

German Chancellor Angela Merkel has got in their team a 39-year-old politician, and now President Vladimir Putin will face the reanimated front in Berlin and Paris as it seeks to expand Russia’s influence in Europe and the lifting of sanctions over a military intervention in Ukraine.


“Vladimir Putin has lost, and probably seriously lost in these elections,” said Daniel fried, former assistant Secretary of state for Europe and Eurasia. “It was clear that the favorite of Putin lost, no doubt”.


Macron will also join like-minded people among the world leaders who are trying to cope with the unpredictable President of the United States Donald trump in the series of global summits, G-7, G-20 and NATO. His accession may be uncomfortable for trump.


Makron was promoting his own campaign under the slogan “buy European”, which may contradict the commercial plans of the US administration. Macron stood as the candidate of change, “but he did not resort to nostalgia and nationalism,” said fried.

“Now he acts as a direct counterweight Trump, intellectually and ideologically”. Position against Russia In contrast to the defeated representative of the nationalist marine Le Pen, France under the control of the Makron, it seems, intends to support the European Union, to help protect the Euro and to maintain the position of their country in NATO.


More specifically, in the election program of Makron has pledged to continue to support economic sanctions against Russia as long as it does not fulfill the terms of the Minsk peace agreement 2014. Le Pen said she would cancel them. Russia and its leader openly supported Le Pen. Russian Bank gave her party a loan in the amount of 9 million euros (9.9 million dollars) in 2014, when the French banks refused her.


During the election campaign this year, Putin met with her in Moscow that allowed Le Pen to say that she is better able to negotiate with Russia and trump than its rivals. Meanwhile, state-controlled media in Russia carried out personal attacks on Him, including questioning his sexual orientation.


More recently, suspicion again fell on Russian hackers due to massive leaks of emails of the team Rules on the eve of voting. Cyber intelligence found signs of a break with the Russian computers. There was no evidence of any connection with Russia, and the Kremlin has repeatedly denied any involvement in such attacks, including in the United States.


Strengthening confidence Decisive victory Macron will bring a welcome boost of confidence for the defenders of the “old” post-war liberal order and the institutions that support it — after years of double shock because of the “breccia” and trump. “Now the world knows where is France,” said Simon Fraser, who resigned from his post as a senior diplomat in the foreign service of great Britain last year and is currently head of the consulting company Global Flint.


“Le Pen was the opposite of all this. Honestly, if she won, it would be a very serious problem for the international system posed by these institutions.” As soon as world leaders congratulated the Makron, trump said on the phone that he wants to work closely with the new President of France in opposition to the “common challenges”. Putin sent a telegram, saying that it is important that the country overcame the “mutual distrust” and joined together for the sake of international security, said in the Kremlin.

The leaders of the 28 member States of NATO will meet in Brussels on 25 may. Then the leaders of the G-7 — including Merkel, Prime Minister of Canada Justin Trudeau and Prime Ministers of Italy, Japan and the UK — will meet in Sicily for the next day. The international baptism of Both events will be very important, not only because they mark the rapid international baptism Makron. It is expected that this will be the first time trump will meet with traditional US allies.


Still, they had to deal with his Vice-President and national security team. They were convinced the allies that much of what trump said to his inauguration in January — about the obsolescence of NATO and the EU, protectionism or the legality of the annexation of Crimea by Russia is not the policy of the United States. In July and September the EU will decide on the extension of the two directions of sanctions against Russia for the next six months. Any of the 28 EU member States has the right to block it, in this case France will be more difficult to support Merkel, who is trying to maintain a United front in the EU.


As stated in the February report of the UK Parliament, support for the regime of EU sanctions in recent times began to weaken. The volatility of trump’s prompted several members, including Austria and Bulgaria, to insist on their abolition. Get ready However, the appearance of the Makron also does not guarantee anything, says Jeffrey Gedmin, a senior researcher from the Atlantic Council, a Washington think tank.


The macron may have to restrain your enthusiasm for EU trade, given that about 40% of French voters in the first round chose candidates who were in favor of isolationism. In addition, the strength of his domestic political mandate, an important currency in international diplomacy, will be determined in the parliamentary elections next month. Moreover, the supporters of the US Alliance-Europe will not be able to count on the cooperation with unpredictable American President when talking about the risks facing the world, said Gedmin.


Russia aims for a far more long term and can wait for another opportunity to split the EU because of the sanctions, after all, is unheard of and China, Iran or North Korea, he said. “Yes, it’s a short-term victory for the transatlantic team, but they still have populists chasing their heels, and the restless public,” said Gedmin. “At some point the world will overtake us, and we will see how Merkel, him and trump would handle it. It is better to prepare.”